Published October 4, 2026 in Market Update

Pending sales are outpacing new listings across Key West and the Florida Keys

By Jimmy Lane

Real estate, Primary market

The one number that matters most to a homeowner right now: pending sales have nearly caught new listings. That means well-priced homes are being absorbed almost as fast as they arrive.

Those two numbers are nearly identical. That is not a coincidence. Total homes for sale across the market fell to 468, down 7.3% from a year before, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Fewer homes available, and buyers are still moving on them.

Pending sales rose 16.3% year over year, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. New listings rose only 0.4%. That gap explains why inventory keeps shrinking even as sellers return to the market.

How the national picture compares

The National Association of Realtors reported 4.9 months of supply nationally, the highest level in over ten years. Key West and the Florida Keys are reading differently. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows months of supply falling in every ZIP code covered here.

Nationally, existing-home sales fell 2.0% in August 2026, according to the National Association of Realtors. Locally, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted sales up 13.8% over the same period a year before. These are two separate stories.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. Realtor.com noted that rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. That is a real cost for financed buyers. Cash buyers, who are common in this market, feel it differently.

CNBC reported in September 2026 that 82% of Miami condo sales valued at $1 million or more in 2025 were all-cash transactions. That pattern is a useful reference point. Buyers in this price range across South Florida have consistently arrived without financing, and Key West and the Florida Keys attract a similar profile of purchaser.

CNBC also reported 194 ultra-luxury home sales of $10 million or more in Miami-Dade County in the first eight months of 2026, even as inflation-adjusted home prices in Miami fell 1.6% year over year. High-end demand in the broader region remains present, though price growth is not uniform. Key West News reported on October 3, 2026 that Seventeen Gables, a planned 117-unit condominium development in Coral Gables, is under construction with one-, two-, and three-bedroom residences starting in the mid-$600,000s. New supply at that price point, aimed at the same buyer pool, is worth noting for sellers here.

ZIP by ZIP: where the absorption is strongest

ZIP 33043, which covers the Big Pine Key area, recorded the fastest median pace at 110 days on market and the highest sale-to-list ratio at 96.1%, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Inventory there fell 16.9% year over year. That is the tightest supply of the three ZIPs.

ZIP 33042, which covers the Lower Keys including Stock Island and Key Haven, saw pending sales rise 20.3% year over year. That is the strongest pending gain of any ZIP here, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. New listings there rose 27.8%, yet months of supply still fell.

ZIP 33040, which covers Key West itself, recorded 129 pending sales against 132 new listings for the period. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median sale price there at $1,100,000, up 12.8% from a year before. Days on market rose 35 days year over year. Homes are selling, but buyers are taking more time to decide.

What sellers should weigh

Prices are up across all three ZIPs. That is clear. But median days on market rose in every ZIP as well, by 19 to 35 days depending on location. Sellers who price carefully are finding buyers. Sellers who price ahead of the market are waiting longer.

Only 3% of homes in ZIP 33040 and 3.1% in ZIP 33042 sold above list price, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. In ZIP 33043, that share was 0%. This is not a market where bidding wars are common. Pricing to the comparable sales matters.

The share of homes going under contract within two weeks of listing fell in two of three ZIPs. In ZIP 33040 it dropped 6.7 points year over year. Quick sales still happen, but they are less frequent than a year ago.

What buyers should weigh

Inventory is down 7.3% across the market, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. There is less to choose from than a year ago, even though new listings rose slightly. Freddie Mac reported the 15-year fixed rate at 6.60% as of October 1, 2026, for buyers who qualify and prefer a shorter term.

The absorption signal is steady. Pending sales at 235 against new listings at 237 means the pipeline is full. Well-priced homes are not sitting. Homes that are priced above the market are adding to the days-on-market figures.

These are market-wide numbers. One street in Old Town reads differently from a canal-front property in the Lower Keys at MM 17. The ZIP code average does not tell you what your specific home is worth against what actually sold near it.