Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

Pending sales are outpacing new listings in Key West and the Florida Keys

By Jimmy Lane

Real estate, Primary market

The one number that matters most right now: 231 pending sales against 210 new listings. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted those figures across Key West and the Florida Keys for the three months ending August 31, 2026. More homes are going under contract than are coming to market. That is the clearest signal of steady demand this market has shown in some time.

Pending sales are up 10.5% from the same three months of 2025, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. New listings fell 1.9% over the same period. That gap does not happen in a market where buyers have stepped back.

Rates are high. Buyers are still moving.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. That is a real cost. Realtor.com reported that rates are up nearly 40 basis points over the four weeks prior to September 30, 2026. And yet the pending sales number here kept climbing. Well-priced homes in this market are still drawing attention.

Nationally, the National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales decreased 2.0% month over month in August 2026. Key West and the Florida Keys are moving differently. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows total homes sold across the three ZIPs at 205 for the three months ending August 31, 2026, down only 0.5% from a year before. That is a far shallower dip than the national picture.

What the three ZIP codes show individually

The market is not uniform. Each ZIP code tells a distinct story for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

ZIP 33040: Key West steady at a $1,000,000 median

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 114 homes sold in ZIP 33040 for the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is down 4.2% from a year before. The median sale price held at $1,000,000, up 2.6%. Pending sales rose 14%, to 122. Homes for sale fell 6%, to 280. Supply tightened slightly, to 7.5 months, down 0.2 months. The sale-to-list ratio improved 1.3 points to 95.6%. Those are not the numbers of a market in retreat.

One honest note: the median days on market in ZIP 33040 was 140 days, seven days longer than a year ago. And only 12.3% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, down 4.5 points. Speed is not guaranteed. Pricing discipline matters more than it did a year ago.

ZIP 33042: The strongest price gain in the market

ZIP 33042, which covers Stock Island and the Lower Keys through the Big Pine corridor, posted the highest median sale price of the three ZIPs. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put it at $1,100,000 for the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 10% from a year before. Homes sold rose 5.1%, to 62. Pending sales climbed 5.9%, to 72. Months of supply fell to 5.3, the tightest of the three ZIPs.

ZIP 33042 also had the strongest two-week contract rate: 18.1% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 6.3 points from a year before. That is the clearest sign of active buyer interest anywhere in this market right now. Median days on market was 147, which is 21 days longer than a year ago. Buyers are still deliberate, but the best-priced homes are moving quickly.

ZIP 33043: The largest price jump, fewer homes available

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 29 homes sold in ZIP 33043 for the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 3.6%. The median sale price rose 27.7% to $880,000. That is a large move, and smaller sample sizes in this ZIP can amplify swings. Homes for sale fell 15.3% to 72, the sharpest inventory drop of the three ZIPs. Months of supply dropped 1.7 months to 7.6. Pending sales were up 8.8%, to 37.

Median days on market in ZIP 33043 was 121 days, 27 days longer than a year before. No homes sold above list price in this period, down 3.6 points. The sale-to-list ratio was 95.6%, up 1.9 points. Sellers here are getting closer to their asking price than a year ago, but the process takes patience.

What this means if you own here

Inventory is falling across all three ZIPs. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 460 homes for sale across the primary market for the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 6.3% from a year before. Fewer homes competing for the same pool of buyers is a meaningful shift. It does not make every price work. The days-on-market figures across all three ZIPs show that overpriced homes still sit.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that active listings are up 6.7% from a year ago as of October 8, 2026. Key West and the Florida Keys are moving in the opposite direction. That local tightening, combined with rising pending sales, is what gives this market its current posture.

One street, one neighborhood, one ZIP code can read very differently from these combined figures. Old Town, Casa Marina, The Meadows, Stock Island and Key Haven each have their own supply and demand picture. The numbers above are a starting point, not a final answer for any one property.