Published October 18, 2026 in Market Update

Pending sales rose even as inventory stayed tight in Key West and the Florida Keys

By Jimmy Lane

Real estate, Primary market

Nationally, the picture was discouraging. Redfin reported that home sellers outnumbered buyers by 62.6% in September, and the National Association of Realtors counted just 3.99 million existing-home sales that month. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. That is a heavy backdrop. Yet the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 231 pending sales across Key West and the Lower Keys in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 10.5% from the same period a year before. Demand here did not follow the national slide.

At the same time, the Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded 460 homes for sale across the three ZIP codes, down 6.3% from a year before. Fewer homes available, more buyers going under contract: that combination keeps well-priced listings in a strong position. It also means buyers face real competition for the homes that do come to market.

Key West (ZIP 33040): steady price, longer time to sell

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 114 homes sold in ZIP 33040 during the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 4.2% from a year before. The median sale price held at $1,000,000, up 2.6%. Pending sales rose 14%, reaching 122. That gap between closed sales falling and pending sales rising suggests closings will recover in the months ahead. Homes that did sell closed at 95.6% of list price on average, up 1.3 points from a year before. The median days on market was 140 days, seven days longer than a year ago. Sellers who price precisely are still reaching buyers. Those who price high are waiting longer.

One detail worth noting: the Real Estate Data Aggregator found that only 12.3% of homes in ZIP 33040 went under contract within two weeks of listing, down 4.5 points from a year before. Quick sales are less common than they were. The homes that moved fast were priced right from day one.

Lower Keys (ZIP 33042): the strongest price gain of the three ZIP codes

ZIP 33042 covers the Lower Keys from Stock Island up through the Big Pine area. The Real Estate Data Aggregator recorded a median sale price of $1,100,000 in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 10% from a year before. That is the largest year-over-year price gain among the three ZIP codes. Homes sold rose 5.1% to 62. Pending sales reached 72, up 5.9%. Inventory held flat at 108 homes for sale. Months of supply fell to 5.3, the tightest of the three ZIP codes and down 0.3 months from a year before.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator also found that 18.1% of homes in ZIP 33042 went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 6.3 points from a year before. That is the highest quick-contract share of the three ZIP codes. In this part of the Lower Keys, well-positioned homes are drawing serious buyers quickly. The median days on market was 147 days, 21 days longer than a year ago, which shows that homes priced at or above the market are still sitting. Pricing discipline separates the fast closings from the long waits.

Big Pine area (ZIP 33043): the sharpest inventory drop

ZIP 33043 covers the Big Pine Key area of the Lower Keys. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 72 homes for sale in the three months ending August 31, 2026, down 15.3% from a year before. That is the steepest inventory decline of the three ZIP codes. The median sale price reached $880,000, up 27.7%. That figure deserves a note: with only 29 homes sold in this period, a handful of higher-priced transactions can move the median significantly. The direction is clear, but the sample is smaller than in the Key West ZIP codes.

Pending sales in ZIP 33043 rose 8.8% to 37. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 16.2% of homes went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 4.4 points from a year before. No homes in this ZIP sold above list price during the period. Buyers here are engaged, but they are not bidding past asking. The sale-to-list average of 95.6% means sellers are leaving some room and buyers are using it.

What the national backdrop means here

Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40% as of October 15, 2026. Redfin reported that the typical homebuyer's monthly payment reached $2,777, the highest level on record except for the prior week. Those numbers weigh on buyers everywhere. Yet pending sales across Key West and the Lower Keys rose 10.5% in the same period. This market draws buyers who are less rate-sensitive than the national average. Many are purchasing second homes or making long-planned moves. Rates slow them; they do not stop them.

What sellers and buyers should take from this

For sellers: demand is present and growing. Pending sales are up across all three ZIP codes. But days on market stretched longer in every ZIP code as well. The homes that closed fastest were priced at or close to market from the start. Overpricing still costs time, and in a market where months of supply runs between 5.3 and 7.6 months, time has a real cost.

For buyers: inventory fell 6.3% market-wide. In ZIP 33042, nearly 1 in 5 homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. Homes priced well are not waiting. Buyers who are ready to move when the right property appears are in a better position than those who need extra time to decide.