Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Pending sales rose even with rates above 7%

By Jimmy Lane

Real estate, Primary market

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. That is the headline most sellers are watching. Here is what the local numbers actually show.

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 231 pending sales across the primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 10.5% from the same period a year before. Closed sales slipped just 0.5% over the same stretch, landing at 205 homes sold. Buyers are still moving. Some are simply taking longer to get to the closing table.

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that September pending home sales were down 11.3% year over year. This market ran in the opposite direction. That gap is worth noting for anyone thinking about timing a sale.

What the rate environment looks like right now

Realtor.com noted that mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. Yet buyers here did not step back. The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales nationally reached 3.99 million units in September 2026, with prices up 1.3% year over year. Locally, prices moved higher too, though the story differs by area.

How each area read in the three months ending August 31, 2026

Key West (33040): pending sales up 14%, but homes are taking longer

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 122 pending sales in Key West in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That is up 14% from a year before. The median sale price reached $1,000,000, up 2.6%. Those are encouraging numbers for sellers.

The honest admission: median days on market came in at 140 days, seven days longer than the same period in 2025. Homes for sale fell 6% to 280, so there is less competition on the market. Still, buyers are taking their time. Pricing precisely matters more than it did a year ago.

The sale-to-list ratio averaged 95.6%, up 1.3 points year over year. Only 2.6% of homes sold above list price. That figure is up 0.9 points, but it remains a small share. Most sellers are not fielding offers over asking. The homes that went under contract within two weeks of listing fell to 12.3%, down 4.5 points. Quick sales are possible, but they are not the norm.

Lower Keys (33042): the tightest supply in the market

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 72 pending sales in ZIP 33042 in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 5.9% from a year before. The median sale price reached $1,100,000, up 10%. Supply held steady at 108 homes for sale, unchanged year over year, yet months of supply came in at 5.3, the lowest of the three ZIP codes.

Nearly 1 in 5 homes here went under contract within two weeks of listing. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put that share at 18.1%, up 6.3 points from a year before. That is the clearest sign of active demand in this market. Sellers who price well are still finding buyers quickly. Median days on market rose to 147 days, 21 days longer than a year before, which tells you the other homes are sitting. Price is doing the sorting.

Big Pine area (33043): the sharpest price gain, and the fastest closings

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 29 homes sold in ZIP 33043 in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 3.6% from a year before. The median sale price reached $880,000, up 27.7%. That is a large move. It reflects a smaller sample of 29 sales, so one or two higher-priced transactions can shift the median meaningfully. Read it as a direction, not a guarantee.

Inventory fell sharply. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 72 homes for sale, down 15.3% from a year before. Months of supply dropped 1.7 months to 7.6. Pending sales rose 8.8% to 37. Median days on market came in at 121 days, the quickest of the three ZIP codes, though that is still 27 days longer than a year before. No homes sold above list price in this period, down 3.6 points. Buyers here are negotiating, not bidding up.

What this means if you are thinking about selling

Pending sales rising 10.5% across the primary market tells you buyers are still active. Closed sales slipping just 0.5% tells you most of those contracts are reaching the finish line. The gap between the two suggests some deals are taking longer to close, likely because buyers are working through financing at rates Freddie Mac put at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026.

Supply is tighter than a year ago. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 460 homes for sale across all three ZIP codes combined, down 6.3% from a year before. Fewer choices for buyers is generally good for sellers. The counterweight is days on market. All three ZIP codes ran longer than a year ago. Homes that are priced right are moving. Homes that are not are sitting.

One street can read very differently from its ZIP code as a whole. A lane in Old Town, a canal-front home on Big Pine Key, a concrete-block home in Midtown: each one sits in its own corner of this market. The numbers above are the backdrop. Your property's story may be sharper or softer than the ZIP code average.