Sellers Assume the Keys Have Cooled. The Sale-to-List Data Says Otherwise.

There's a story sellers in the Keys have been telling themselves this summer: the market cooled off. Homes are sitting longer. Buyers have the upper hand. Time to brace for lowball offers.

Here's what the data actually says.

Across the twelve weeks ending August 30, 2026, the territory's median sale-to-list percentage came in at 96%. A year earlier, over the same window, it was about 94%. Sellers, on average, are getting closer to their asking price now than they were a year ago, not further from it.

That sits oddly next to the other headline number. Median days on market across the territory ran 128 days. That's a long runway for a home to sit before it sells. If you only looked at that figure, you'd assume buyers were dictating terms and sellers were caving on price to get deals done. The sale-to-list data says the opposite is happening.

The territory's median sold price landed at $970,000. Homes are taking their time to sell, but they are not selling for meaningfully less than sellers are asking.

Look closer and the tension gets more interesting. In Summerland Key, the median sale price climbed about 19% year over year. Sellers there are also holding firmer ground on price: the average sale-to-list percentage rose from about 93% a year ago to roughly 96% this period. Buyers are paying more and conceding less. That's not a cooling market. That's a tightening one.

Marathon tells a different piece of the same story. There, the median sale price fell about 22% year over year.

That decline stood alone. Every other market in the territory moved the other direction on price this period.

Even with that decline, Marathon sellers aren't giving up more ground at the table. The average sale-to-list percentage there still edged up about a percentage point from a year earlier. Sellers are asking for less than they used to, and getting nearly all of it.

That's the tension worth sitting with. A falling price and a firming sale-to-list ratio can happen at the same time, because they're measuring two different things: what a home sells for, and how much a seller had to concede to sell it.

Speed tells its own separate story, and it isn't uniform either. Median days to pending ran about 120 days in Summerland Key, the slowest pace in the territory.

In Marathon, the same measure ran about 92 days, the fastest pace of the four markets. Two markets sitting inside the same buy box, moving at very different speeds.

What does this mean if you're deciding whether to list? The days-on-market number is real. Buyers are taking longer to commit than they were. But that patience isn't translating into steep price cuts once an offer arrives. A seller who prices realistically for their specific market, whether that's the firmer pricing power showing up in Summerland Key or the faster pace in Marathon, isn't necessarily leaving money on the table by waiting for the right buyer.

If you're buying, the sale-to-list number is the one to watch. A rate near 96% territory-wide means there's less room to lowball than the "market has cooled" narrative suggests, even on a home that's been sitting a while.

What to watch next: whether the days-on-market figure keeps climbing while sale-to-list holds firm, which would mean sellers are simply waiting longer for buyers who still pay close to ask, or whether the two measures start moving together, which would be the first real sign of a shift.

This report draws on MLS sold data for Key West, Summerland Key, Big Pine Key and Marathon.

Jimmy